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Celestial influences on the climate

-  Mai  2010  -
 

 

1)  The Sun

The Sun is provided with a cycle of more or less 11 years in the course of which it crosses of a low activity with a minimum of spots even none, in a strong activity with a large number of spots (approximately at the most 200 spots) to return then to its minimum of activity. But in each of his cycles he expresses himself by coughing more or less hardly. Since Galilee, we use to observe the humor of the sun by counting his spots...
 


Numbers of sunspots during the various cycles since 1700 until 2010
 
 

The sun in low-level period
(pictures taken with various filters by the probe SOHO - January, 2009)
 
       
Vidéo :
Low eruptions
January, 2009

   
 

The sun in period of strong activity
(pictures taken with various filters by the probe SOHO - January, 2001)
       
Vidéo :
Average eruptions in January, 2001

Vidéo :
Strong eruptions
Mars 2001

Vidéo :
Strong eruptions
November 2003

       
 

 

The solar activity is mainly translated by permanent rays from which we receive only a low part on our ground (rays of the sun which light us and warm us), by local increases of his magnetic field (sunspots, see pictures above) and by eruptions of a power of several thousands in several hundred million atom bombs (visible eruptions on videos above where the sun is masked to allow to observe what takes place from its surface). These eruptions expel jets of ionized material which get lost in the solar corona up to hundreds of thousands miles in height with a distribution of several types of more or less intense additional rays in the direction of the space and from time to time in the direction of our planet. These various solar rays which we receive are diverted for the greater part by the magnetic field of the Earth outside the ground field and towards the poles (creation of auroras borealis during the strong solar flares), the other part being absorbed most of the time by our atmosphere.

 

2)  Cosmic rays
*


Explosion of a massive star in supernova ( M1), observed in 1054, in the nebula of the Crab
 

Reconstruction of the birth of another supernova in 2006 :

Vidéo



 

A stream of atomic nuclei and particles of high energy, the space rays, reaches us of the very depths of the universe and specially our own galaxy because of old explosions of distant stars (celestial bodies which can be 100 times as big at least as our Sun). The magnetic field which protects the Earth diverts a part of these space rays outside the ground field and towards the poles, but the other part of these rays penetrates into our atmosphere by provoking ionisantes reactions there. A new interesting theory indicates that among these reactions there would be a formation of low-lying clouds which are relatively hot and consisted of fine droplets of water. These clouds would cool the planet by preventing a part of the sunlight from reaching the surface of the Earth.


 

3)  Interaction between the solar activity and the cosmic rays

During the periods of strong activity the Sun diverts a part of space rays coming from the distant space so saving the Earth of a part of this cosmic rays. According to the raised theory higher, the formation of low clouds on Earth being reduced in this case, the sunlight would light more the surface of the Earth and the Sun would warm us more strongly during this period. On the contrary, you will thus have understood that in case of solar low activity our planet would tend to cool because the cosmic rays coming from the space would hardly be little confused by the Sun and as a consequence a bigger quantity of low clouds would accumulate preventing the sun from warming us of so much.
 


This graph represents the number of sunspots (line in dotted line) and the intensity of the cosmic rays ( full line).
Note the anti-correlation between the intensity of the cosmic rays and the solar activity.


 

4)  Epilogue


Evolution of the temperatures in the north hemisphere in parallel in the solar activity

* The absence of sunspots in the second half of XVII century corresponds to a " small glacial age " of the name of " minimum of Maunder "
* The curve of the temperatures comes from the core sample analysis of ice extracted in Arctic


All the graphs which can represent a correlation between the solar activity and the temperatures felt on Earth for 150 years show that the gap between the curves of these 2 statements did not never stop increasing for the benefit of a disturbing global warming. Some scientists think that it is only the consequence of an increase of the magnetic field emitted by the sun and/or because of a decrease of the cosmic rays, what what cannot be demonstrated nor by the modern ways of investigation which add up on average less than about fifty years of observation (ex: the graph on the interaction between the solar wind and the space rays), nor by the classic observation of sunspots. Others think that this gap is logically due above all to the greenhouse effect that the man considerably strengthened in a increasing way by his various polluting activities since the beginning of his industrial era, and very secondarily because of a resumption of the solar activity after the small age icebox arisen in XVII éme century (see the graph above). There is however a way which could soon shed light on this big interrogation: the memory of the Earth. The core drilling of ices and sediments has already allowed us to get an idea on the evolution of the temperature on Earth and the composition of its atmosphere on thousands, millions of years. So, new researches try at present to redraw the evolution of the solar activity and the cosmic rays registered too in ices and sediments, and in certain meteorites fallen on Earth. To follow...

It happens at the Sun to be whimsical. Here is more than 2 years than we waited for the restart of its activity and it would seem finally whether it is the case since February, but however it remains still very shy. The Sun thus stayed calm during a good moment and it would thus have less warmed us during this time there. Nevertheless, in spite of the rather cold winter which we knew in Europe and on the East coast of the USA while the snow melted at the olympics of Vancouver, Meteo France announced that the average of the temperatures in the world was superior 0,5 ° C this winter compared with normal seasonal temperatures. The inertia of the past strong hot seasons but especially the greenhouse effect (who is on the other hand constantly present and in constant evolution) should well be there the cause whatever we say about it, because the period of sunshine of the Earth was reduced during more than 2 years.
As for those who were afraid of a maximum activity of the sun in 2012, seen his delayed ignition, they can be afraid from now on for the relevance of their predictions ...

Certain astronomers bet on solar cycles to come from an intensity much lower than those whom we knew during the last 7 cycles, what means that a little cold period which we know at present could continue well still a few years even during some solar cycles, with a greenhouse effect which on the contrary should serve to limit a little this cooling. But if really it could be the case, a great danger watches for us: that of the oversight or the bigger denial of the excess of our polluting activities. And when the sun will take back a normal and virulent activity, if the greenhouse effect has of this still increased fact, we shall know certainly a new in living memory unprecedented global warming. If on the other hand the current novice solar cycle turned out to be a so active cycle that the precedents we would risk to find in some small years strong heat waves(scorching heats) of the same type as what we knew in 2003. I don't want to be specially alarmist but I simply wanted to warn of possible aftermath which watch for us …

 

 

5)  Some links


See my statements of the monthly and daily intensity of the ejection of coronal mass of the sun
Click here

The last pictures emitted by the probe SOHO
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/data/realtime-images.html

Space weather
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_weather

 

 

RM -  Mai 2010